El Niño Preparedness

  • by Benton Best

A very strong El Niño is expected later this year, increasing the potential for significant weather impacts across California. 

UC Davis event planners are encouraged to prepare early, establish contingency plans and monitor changing conditions.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-average waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, influencing weather patterns around the world. Federal and international forecasters expect a very strong El Niño to peak in fall 2026 through winter 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest on record. While the exact impacts can vary, a strong El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter conditions in California, making awareness and preparation especially important in the months ahead.

Have a Plan

Graphic of North America with colored flow zones and a large red curved arrow
Typical El Niño weather pattern across North America. Source: NOAA

In addition to completing the Special Event Permit Application and Emergency Plan when planning special events and activities, prepare for weather-related hazards.  

Extreme Heat:

A sustained temperature above 90°F may trigger additional safety recommendations from Safety Services.

Rain:

Be prepared to take additional precautions when:

  • Rainfall reaches 0.30 inches or more per hour
  • Cumulative precipitation reaches 1 inch or more over an eight-hour period

Wind:

Weather precautions may be necessary when:

  • Sustained winds reach 25–31 mph (Beaufort 6)
  • Wind gusts reach 32–38 mph (Beaufort 7)

Lightning:

A confirmed lightning strike within 20 miles of an event may trigger additional safety recommendations. Event organizers should consider the following guidelines:

  • 15 miles: Send a “heads up” alert
  • 10 miles: Begin safety procedures
  • 6 miles: Event is in danger; safety procedures should be completed

Know Your Thresholds

Planning teams should establish when inclement weather would prevent an event from safely meeting its purpose. Before the event, consider:

  • At what point can the event no longer meet its mission because of heat, rain, wind or lightning?
  • What conditions would trigger postponement, and who has the authority to make that decision?
  • What conditions would trigger an evacuation, and who has the authority to make that decision?
  • What safety messages can be prepared in advance so they can be quickly shared with event staff and attendees before, during or after a disruption?

Establishing these thresholds ahead of time can help teams respond quickly and consistently when conditions change.

Monitor the Weather

Be sure to monitor weather reports leading up to and throughout the event. Useful resources include:

At the campus level, UC Davis will monitor weather reports, rain and river gauges, and other conditions to support emergency preparedness and response. However, the best emergencies are those avoided.

Additional Information

For more information about the developing El Niño and its potential impacts, visit:

Questions?

For questions or concerns about planning for El Niño, contact [email protected] or [email protected].